Decision analyses combined with integrated population models overcome inaction and instigate values-based conservation translocations - Dr Johannes Fischer
Tuesday, November 14, 2023 |
10:40 AM - 10:50 AM |
Sirius / Pleiades Room, Esplanade Hotel Fremantle |
Speaker
Dr Johannes Fischer
Technical Advisor Seabirds
New Zealand Department of Conservation
Decision analyses combined with integrated population models overcome inaction and instigate values-based conservation translocations
Abstract
Decisions on conservation management, including conservation translocations, are highly challenging due to multiple, competing values (objectives) held by invested parties, complex management options (alternatives), potential irreversible outcomes (consequences), ubiquitous uncertainty, and/or opaque governance structures. Even when decisions are made, these challenges may still inhibit implementation. Decision analyses may offer solutions, particularly when paired with powerful statistical tools, such as integrated population models (IPMs), to predict consequences while accounting explicitly for uncertainty. We applied formal decision analyses for the conservation management, including conservation translocations, of two highly threatened species from Aotearoa New Zealand (Kuaka/Whenua Hou Diving Petrel and Karure/Kakaruia/Black Robin). Together with Moriori and/or Māori (Indigenous Peoples), government staff, industry, and community representatives, we identified fundamental objectives and potential alternatives. We subsequently predicted consequences of alternatives across objectives using state-of-the-art (meta-population) IPMs and expert elicitations hosted in person or through Shiny apps. We then used decision-analytical tools to weigh trade-offs and identify preferred alternatives, which involved conservation translocations of both species. In both cases, the recommended alternative, including associated conservation translocations, was rapidly implemented following the decision analyses. This was remarkable given previous decade-long periods of inaction. We argue that our decision analyses combined with IPMs facilitated inclusive environments for all participants, rational and transparent navigation of decision landscapes, clear understanding of uncertainty, and explicit integration of all fundamental values including Indigenous value systems and industry concerns, which ultimately provided the necessary social licenses for rapid conservation translocation implementation.
Biography
Johannes Fischer is a technical advisor for the New Zealand Department of Conservation. His work focusses on addressing domestic and international threats to seabirds, particularly by fostering cross-governmental and international collaborations and through structured decision-making to implement conservation action, including translocations.