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Living Fast on the Texas Prairies: Overcoming stochasticity to establish populations of an endangered prairie grouse - Paul Senner

Tuesday, November 14, 2023
9:15 AM - 9:25 AM
Sirius / Pleiades Room, Esplanade Hotel Fremantle

Speaker

Paul Senner
Population Analyst - Alexander Center for Applied Population Biology
Lincoln Park Zoo

Living Fast on the Texas Prairies: Overcoming stochasticity to establish populations of an endangered prairie grouse

Abstract

The Attwater’s greater prairie-chicken (APC; Tympanuchus cupido attwateri) is a U.S. Endangered Species native to coastal Texas and Louisiana. Land use change, invasive species and extreme weather all contributed to this species’ decline, and in 1992 partner agencies initiated an ex-situ breeding program. Birds have been released annually since 1995 but, despite these efforts, populations remain below recovery targets. APC have high reproductive rates and naturally high mortality rates, which pose a dual challenge to species managers: how to manage an ex-situ population within the limits of available space, and establish a “stable” in-situ population of a fast living species. Using studbook data, data from wild radio-marked individuals and expert opinion we estimated model parameters and conducted a population viability analysis to assess the viability of both in-situ and ex-situ APC populations. In a meta-population model framework, we compared the impacts of disease, release strategy, hurricanes, land management and predator mitigation efforts on APC populations. Results suggest that the ex-situ population will remain demographically stable over the next 50 years and can continue to support release efforts, but will lose more than 10% of its genetic diversity at its current size. Based on estimated demographic rates, in-situ populations have a high probability of extinction within the next 10 years without continued releases. Management efforts aimed at increasing brood survival may be critical to program success. This work highlights the value of PVA in testing the efficacy of potential management actions in a dynamic system.

Biography

As a member of the Alexander Center for Applied Population Biology at Lincoln Park Zoo, Paul is a scientific advisor specializing in conservation programs that straddle the ex-situ/in-situ boundary. Paul grew up in Anchorage, Alaska, and has worked on conservation programs from the Mekong Delta to the Midwest U.S.

Session Chair

Dorian Moro
Environment Manager/Ranger Coordinator
TMPAC / Mantjiljarra Yulparirra

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