Climate change puts conservation translocation programs at increasing risk of failure. Translocation sites formerly suitable for some species may shift to conditions outside a species’ physiological tolerances. Climate stress will impact habitat components that translocated species depend upon. More frequent and intense extreme events (fires, droughts, floods) can have catastrophic impacts on small, fragmented or confined populations, and these stressors threaten the genetic diversity of translocated populations.

In arid South Australia, the average temperature has already risen by 1.5 degrees, heatwaves are becoming longer and more intense, and rainfall patterns are shifting. We are measuring these impacts at Arid Recovery, a 12,300 ha predator-proof fenced reserve. Extended drought conditions caused dramatic crashes in populations of threatened species, death of long-lived vegetation and the functional extinction of one reintroduced species.

A key challenge for translocated species in predator-free reserves is that they are confined within fences or on islands and cannot disperse to, or repopulate from, climate refugia. We therefore developed a range of measures to mimic refugia by installing soakage areas, providing supplementary water and food, and being prepared to translocate animals for ex situ protection. Thresholds guided these actions and allowed for increasingly interventionist strategies as populations declined.

We are now applying the most effective adaptive strategies and promoting resilience in the ecosystem by managing grazing and waterflow. Research is underway to test tolerances of different species to extremes. We are also planning for growing strain on critical fencing infrastructure affected by sand movement and storm damage.